I waited with this bet until last moment because I wanted to see the latest odds movements and the most possible line ups for today's match up.

Odds on Ceara slashed down by 0.10 on big Asian markets with the highest possible limits, but I don't agree with this trend. Now I see excellent value on away side.

Ceara have huge problems with goalscoring - they scored only one goal in last 3 matches. In addition to that their top scorer Mendoza (according to many sources) is unavailable to start in first team today. He scored 7 of 13 Ceara goals in current season. It's huge blow for the team and should have very bad impact on their performance.

On the other hand Atletico at the moment looks amazing upfront - in last 4 consecutive matches they had expected goals scored number above 1.63. In last round they won 3:1 at home against Juventude and that was high quality performance: expected goals scored for Atletico 4.42, for Juventude 0.69. If they continue to play on this level I see great chances for them today.

Atletico have solid record against Ceara as they didn't lost in 12 of last 16 matches against them and avoid loss in last 3 matches in a row at this stadium.