Lens VS Paris Saint Germain (PSG)

Lyon welcome PSG for this French Ligue 1 round 17 clash at Parc Olymp at Stade Bollaert-Delelis early Monday morning Beijing time. There is no doubt about that PSG are the stronger team here. However I cannot agree with the biggest, usually pretty sharp bookmakers that accecept the biggest bets- They offer the hosts odds of around 2.05 on the visitors to take all three points – at least at the time of writing this preview Sunday evening Beijing time.. However, I would not be very surprised to see odds on Lens to drop before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the the hosts – particularly in handicap betting..In my view PSG have a 39 % chance to win. However, all my fans and I need to win with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap on is for Lens to take at least a point - he probability for this is 61%. I have mentioned before that the betting market often over-reacted to missing players.. However, there are games, like this one, where a team's chance of winning is decreased even more than the bookmakers seem to think. Leo Messi and Neymar are, of course, among the best players on the planet and cannot really be replaced! They are the heart and soul of PSG. Of course there is still Mbappe who scored no less than three goals(!) in the World Cup final two weeks ago. He can create a scoring chance all by himself from from nothing. PSG, on the the richest clubs in the world of course have a deep squad full of very good players. There is however, a big difference between very good and world-class players. In addition to Messi (rest after the World Cup & wild celebrations afterwards) and Neymar ( ed card in the previous game ) they will be without Kimpembe, Mendes, Pembele and Sanches. Lens, on the other hand, will be missing Buksa, Cabot and Farinez. Costa has been suffering from a shoulder injury and his situation is unclear at the time of writing this preview late Sunday evening Beijing time.

PSG, as expected by everyone, top the standings with 44 points and have not suffered a defeat so far this season in Ligue 1. Their score difference is excellent - 45:10. Even without all the players listed above they are the stronger team but my point is that the difference is not that as big as many football fans and the betting market probably believe. Defensively the difference between the teams is only marginal in PSG's favor – both teams have allowed 10 goals. I also want to mention that PSG have taken 7.45 more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS) Lens are not among the biggest teams in France by historical success, financial resources or players total market value according to Transfermarkt.com but are having a terrific season! They have surprised everyone and I have massively raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from preseason analysis. They occupy the 2nd place in the standings with 37 points and a very good goal difference of 25:10. Furthermore, they have lost just one game this season! However, they, too, have been lucky in terms of xPTS which is 32.13. At home they have been on fire winning all eight games in Ligue 1 this season with a score difference of 18:6! PSG were not too convincing in their most recent game beating Strasbourg 2-1 through Mbappes's late 2-1 goal. Neymar was sent of in the 62th minute for diving! He really let his team down.. PSG were priced around 1.20 to win by the bookies and did have 71% ball possession. The visitors did, however, recorded more goal attempts – 12-10! PSG recorded 2.02 in expected goals (xG) – the visitors' number was 1.23. They would have to improve the beat strong Lens who are once again massively boosted by loud home fans.. Lens were not quite at their best offensively in their most recent match and it was a 0-0 draw away from home. Nice, of course are a pretty good team. Lens recorded 1.32 in xG, Nice's number was 1.19