Bayer Leverkusen vs Royale Union SG

Bayern Leverkusen welcome Royale Union SG for this Europe Union SG for this UEFA Europa League quarter-final first leg clash at BayArena. The hosts are a German team. The visitors came from Belgium. The stakes are high as all teams must have their teams on the trophy already – at this stage of the competition. The winner of this competition earns a place for the Champions League for the next season – this would be massive for the players – and for the clubs in terms of prize money. Both teams, of course, also have a chance to earn this in the domestic league but the chances are not too great.. I would, however, be extremely surprised if the Belgians were to win this competition.. As for Leverkusen, a strong German Bundesliga team, the changes are much bigger! They qualified for the Champions League for this season by doing well in the Bundesliga last season. However, they were struggling last autumn and finished only third in the group. This year they have looked massively better on the pitch and have climbed up the Bundesliga standings and are already in the 6th place with 43 points to their account. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 45.89 points. They have won a whopping seven games in a row – five of these seven by more than one goal's difference! They are sky-high in confidence and have very enthusiastic fans who boost the hosts massively here.

I do not often recommend a bet on a  heavy favorite but will make an exception here. The odds on the German hosts offered by the biggest, often pretty sharp bookmakers offer odds of around 1.50 are too high! The fans looking for bigger odds can take the hosts with the -1.5 goals handicap at odds of around 2.30. The probability of Leverkusen winning is 73% and the chance for them taking a win by at least two goals' margin is 49%. The hosts have a massive advantage over Royale Union SG in all areas of the game. They are a much bigger club in terms of historical success, financial resources and players total market value - according to a well-respected and famous German website, Transfermarkt.com. The visitors, too, have achieved good results recently but we must remember that the Belgian Jupiler Pro League is massively worse than the Bundesliga, which the third-best league on the planet. They are currently in second place in this league with 69 points in the pocket. They have netted the ball 64 times and allowed 38 goals so far this season. Their number of xPTS is just 63.32 and I have them in the 3rd place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. They were disappointing in their most recent match despite taking a draw away from home against Gent trough a 1-1 draw. The hosts recorded 1.83 in expected goals (xG) – the visitors managed just 0.62