Roasso Kumamoto VS Sagan Tosu

Kumamoto welcome Sagan Tosu for this YBC Levain Cup round 2 battle at Egao Kenko Stadium Wednesday evening Beijing time. Teams from the three highest levels of Japanese football play in this competition – J1, J2 and J3 Leagues that is to be precise. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of moderately better than average quality by this competition's standards here. Most importantly my fans and I have yet another very interesting betting opportunity here! I want to emphasize that there is a substantial difference in quality between the J1 and J2 Leagues! Kumamoto play in the J2 League. They have started the season in a slightly disappointing manner. Indeed, they currently occupy the 14th place in the standings with only 12 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is marginally higher though. Last season they ended up in 14th place. I do not see this team having much of a chance of making it to the top-10 this season.. They have not been impressive even at home this season. Indeed, they have won only one of the J2 League games in front of their fans. Their score difference in these six matches is terrible – 9:16. Their defence has been ever more shaky than I estimated in my in-depth preseason analysis. Indeed, it has a poor structure and the defenders have many various kinds of silly mistakes. Furthermore, their midfielders have not been active enough in helping the defence. They have allowed 23 goals – only Tochigi have conceded more – 24. Kumamoto have not won any of their last three matches. In their last game they faced Okayama away from home and lost 0-2 despite playing okay. However, I want to emphasize that Okayama were far from their best in this game. Their defensive imbalances were once again the main reason for the defeat. Before this they faced Kofu at home and it was a fun game to watch. It was a 3-3 draw and Kumamoto had 67% ball possession. However, both teams had eight goal attempts and either team could easily have won. In round 9 V-Varen Nagasaki, a strong team, made the Kumamoto defence look pretty ridiculous at times – taking a 4-3 away win. Good – or even mediocre teams seem to find and mercilessly take advantage of Kumamoto's weak defence! I expect Sagan Tosu to do the same here!

I want to highlight that Kumamoto are a pretty small team even by the J2 League standards in terms of financial resources and players' estimated total market value – according to Transfermarkt.com – a reliable source. Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of some 4.50 million euros. The Sagan Tosu squad is valued at over 11 million – this is still too low though. 13-13.5 million would be a more fair number. Sagan Tosu play in the J1 League and have an edge over Kumamoto in all areas of the game - even if their head coach were to do some squad rotation here. They have some decent players outside the optimal starting eleven and these players would love to prove their skills against a pretty lowly opponent. Sagan Tosu have not started the season well and are in 17th place at the moment. They have only seven points in their pocket but their number of xPTS is 9.98. Their score difference is 11:18. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is a bit bigger – 12.55 to be precise. Their defence has, in all honesty, been shaky in some games but I trust their defenders to do well enough against Kumamoto. They have conceded 18 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is "only" 14.99.   They do sometimes struggle under well-organized pressing from the opponent but Kumamoto are probably not capable of doing this here.. Well Kumamoto will surely try to be aggressive but this will presumably offer Sagan Tosu many chances for dangerous counter attacks.. The visitors can improve in all areas of the game as the season progresses. Last season they ended up in 14th place. The lame start in the J1 League probably increases their motivation to do well in the YBC Levain Cup! In their last game they were excellent, beating a dangerous team, Kashima Antlers, 4-2 at home. They generated a whopping 3.77 in xG. Their player, Marcelo Ryan, even missed a penalty in the 23rd minute. The visitors' xG number was only 1.45. Sagan Tosu were big underdogs in this game on the betting market – the odds on the home win were around 5.00 The bookies should really respect Sagan Tosu more. Rather weirdly, Kumamoto are priced around 2.05 to win this game in the 90 minutes of play. In reality the visitors – according to my sophisticated expert analysis - deserve to be marginal favourites and we will take the +0.5 goals handicap option at excellent odds!

熊本罗索VS托苏萨根

北京时间周三晚上，熊本将在羽高建古球场迎来萨根东修的YBC列文杯第二轮比赛。来自日本足球三个最高级别的球队参加这项比赛- J1, J2和J3联赛，这是准确的。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期利润——可以期待一场比赛的质量略好于比赛的平均水平。最重要的是，我和我的粉丝在这里又有了一个非常有趣的投注机会!我想强调的是，J1和J2联赛在质量上有很大的不同!熊本在J2联赛打球。他们本赛季的开局有点令人失望。事实上，他们目前在积分榜上排名第14位，只剩下12分。不过，他们的期望值(xPTS)略高。上个赛季他们只排在第14位。我不认为这支球队本赛季有太多机会进入前十。他们本赛季甚至在主场也没有给人留下深刻的印象。事实上，他们在球迷面前只赢了一场J2联赛。他们这六场比赛的比分差太大了——9:16。他们的防守比我在季前赛的深度分析中估计的更加不稳定。确实，它有一个糟糕的结构，后卫有许多各种愚蠢的错误。此外，他们的中场在帮助防守方面也不够积极。他们丢了23个球，只有枥木丢了24个。熊本在最近三场比赛中没有赢过一场。在上一场比赛中，他们在客场面对冈山，尽管表现不错，但还是以0比2输掉了比赛。然而，我想强调的是，冈山在这场比赛中远远没有发挥出最好的水平。他们防守的不平衡再次成为失败的主要原因。在此之前，他们在主场对阵寇夫，这是一场有趣的比赛。双方以3比3战平，熊本控球率为67%。然而，两队都有8次射门机会，任何一方都可以轻松获胜。在第9轮比赛中，长崎varen这支强队让熊本的防守看起来相当荒谬，他们以4-3的比分取得了胜利。优秀甚至平庸的球队似乎找到并无情地利用熊本薄弱的防守!我希望萨根·托苏在这里也能做到!

我想强调的是，根据Transfermarkt.com的可靠数据，即使按照J2联赛的标准，熊本也是一支相当小的球队。事实上，他们的球员估计总市值约为450万欧元。萨根-托苏的阵容价值超过1100万英镑，尽管这仍然太低了。1300万到1350万是比较公平的数字。萨根托苏在J1联赛踢球，在比赛的各个方面都比熊本有优势——即使他们的主教练要在这里做一些阵容轮换。在最佳首发阵容之外，他们还有一些不错的球员，这些球员会喜欢在一个相当低的对手面前证明自己的技术。萨根-托苏本赛季开局不佳，目前排在第17位。他们虽然只拿到了7分，但是他们的得分却是9.98分。他们的比分差是11:18。然而，他们的预期目标数量(xG)要大一些——准确地说是12.55。他们的防守，说实话，在一些比赛中是不稳定的，但我相信他们的后卫在对阵熊本的比赛中做得足够好。他们丢了18个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)“只有”14.99个。他们有时确实在对手组织严密的压迫下挣扎，但熊本在这里可能做不到。好吧，熊本肯定会尝试进攻，但这可能会给Sagan Tosu提供很多危险的反击机会。随着赛季的进展，客队可以在比赛的各个方面有所提高。上个赛季他们只排在第14位。J1联赛的糟糕开局可能会增加他们在YBC列文杯上表现出色的动力!在上一场比赛中，他们表现出色，在主场4-2击败了一支危险的球队鹿岛鹿角队。他们在xG中产生了惊人的3.77。他们的球员马塞洛·瑞安(Marcelo Ryan)甚至在第23分钟罚丢了一个点球。游客的xG值只有1.45。在这场比赛中，萨根·托苏在博彩市场上处于劣势——主场获胜的赔率约为5.00。博彩公司应该更尊重萨根·托苏。奇怪的是，在90分钟的比赛中，熊本的价格在2.05左右。事实上，根据我老练的专家分析，客队应该是最受欢迎的球队，我们将以极好的赔率选择+0.5个进球障碍!