Everton suffered a 0–2 away defeat to Chelsea in their previous match, and the performance left little room for excuses. In addition to Idrissa Gueye’s and Iliman Ndiaye’s international duties, there is concern in the Toffees’ camp over the fitness of several key players. In particular, potential absences for Kieran Dewsbury-Hall and Jack Grealish would be a significant blow to Everton’s attacking play.

Arsenal, meanwhile, were surprisingly stretched by bottom-of-the-table Wolves but ultimately turned the match in their favour with a 2–1 win. The Gunners’ lead has narrowed in recent weeks both in the league table and in power rankings, but the previously worrying injury situation has eased to a manageable level.

With Everton’s lineup issues, Arsenal’s qualitative advantage becomes even more pronounced. If Dewsbury-Hall and Grealish are unavailable, the home side’s ability to create attacking threat will weaken significantly. I estimate Arsenal’s away win to materialise at least six times out of ten. Both teams are, by profile, below average in terms of goal output, which keeps the total expected goals at a moderate level of around 2.30.

It has to be noted, that the difference in class between these two is a lot bigger in the underlying xG-data than in the actual table, and in the worst case Everton tonight is far from their best which makes the gap even bigger.

Another thing, Everton have already lost by this handicap vs City, Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea. Let that run continue, even if I have liked Everton quite a lot this season, just not today!

Good luck friends!

埃弗顿在上一场比赛中客场0-2不敌切尔西，他们的表现让他们没有任何借口。除了伊德里萨·盖耶和伊利曼·恩迪亚耶的国家队任务外，太妃糖阵营还担心几名关键球员的健康状况。特别是，德鲁斯伯里-霍尔和格雷利什的缺席将对埃弗顿的进攻造成重大打击。

与此同时，阿森纳出人意料地被排名垫底的狼队压得喘不过气来，但最终以2-1的比分扭转了局面。最近几周，枪手的领先优势在积分榜和实力排名上都有所缩小，但之前令人担忧的伤病状况已经缓解到可以控制的程度。

由于埃弗顿的阵容问题，阿森纳的质量优势变得更加明显。如果杜斯伯里-霍尔和格利利什缺阵，主队制造进攻威胁的能力将大大削弱。我估计阿森纳的客场胜利至少十有六会成为现实。两支球队在进球输出方面都低于平均水平，这使得总预期进球保持在2.30左右的中等水平。

必须指出的是，这两支球队在级别上的差异在基本的x - g数据中比在实际表格中要大得多，在最坏的情况下，埃弗顿今晚远没有达到最佳状态，这使得差距更大。

还有一件事，埃弗顿已经因为这个劣势输给了曼城、热刺、纽卡斯尔和切尔西。让这一切继续下去吧，即使我本赛季很喜欢埃弗顿，但今天不行！

祝朋友们好运！